As with most new technologies, the key to gaining wide acceptance is to
create a standard implementation so that all products can interoperate.
Currently, 56-kbps technology doesn't even come close to achieving this
goal. U.S. Robotics jumped the starting gun by releasing its x2
specification in January 1997. Meanwhile, Rockwell was working on an
implementation it called K56Plus, while Lucent Technologies had its own
V.flex2. When Rockwell and Lucent decided to join forces to counter U.S.
Robotics, they created a spec dubbed K56flex that would allow the
products using it to interoperate. The result of all this activity? We
now have two 56k specifications to choose from--x2 and K56flex--neither
of which will, under any circumstances, work with the other.
So will x2 or K56flex become the standard? That's hard to predict, but
if we had to place a bet, we'd put our money on K56flex. Which is not to
say that U.S. Robotics' x2 is inferior in any way: our testing shows
that it isn't. In the real world, which spec dominates will depend on
which one gains the largest market share of modems and the most
acceptance from Internet service providers.
While U.S. Robotics holds roughly 30 percent of the market, Rockwell and
Lucent have the other 70 percent. And while U.S. Robotics spends energy
and time making and selling its own modems, Rockwell and Lucent just
dole out their chipsets to hardware manufacturers. Ascend, for example,
is using Rockwell chips in its routers, while Livingston is going with
Lucent. U.S. Robotics is currently keeping its server-side technology
proprietary, so right now it's the sole ISP equipment distributor to
support x2. With the recent merger of 3Com and U.S. Robotics, x2's
future becomes even more uncertain, since 3Com originally backed
K56flex.
Despite the muddy waters, it doesn't really matter whether you go with
x2 or K56flex, as long as you are guaranteed an upgrade or replacement
to whichever standard the ITU (International Telecommunication Union)
decides on. U.S. Robotics has been very clear about its intentions to
provide you with the ITU standard as soon as one is determined. Vendors
on the K56flex side, such as Motorola, are making similar guarantees.
For the time being, the TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) is
working on defining an interim standard. Given that the standards
process often takes years to complete, there's no point in waiting
around for it to happen. Data communications technology has been moving
so quickly, we might well have moved onto the next great advancement by
then.
